How important are emissions in emerging economies?
Avoiding a carbon lock-in seems like a promising idea to tackle climate change. We're also excited to announce some environmental content at EAGx Utrecht!
Thank you for opening the Effective Environmentalism newsletter! In this newsletter, we cover promising solutions to environmental issues that work at scale, are tractable, and neglected by conventional environmental action. We’re building a community of people and organisations tackling environmental issues as effectively as possible.
🔒 Avoiding a “lock-in” of carbon-intensive energy as a climate priority
If you want to reduce the total amount of greenhouse gases that will ever be emitted, there are two main strategies:
Reducing current emission sources. It is possible to stop or abate current sources of carbon emissions by reducing energy demand, closing coal power plants, or promoting public transport over driving.
Stopping the creation of new emission sources. For example, by meeting new energy demand by deploying renewables instead of building coal-fired power plants. This avoids a “carbon lock-in” in countries expanding their energy sector, and while doing so, they might as well leapfrog to cheap, clean energy without high carbon emissions or air pollution.
This second approach typically receives a lot less attention than the first, for many understandable reasons. Global North countries are responsible for almost half of all carbon emissions so far, which is massive compared to their relatively small populations. These countries have been able to economically develop themselves by building carbon-intensive industries, often while exploiting the Global South. There’s a decent argument to be made that the Global North should therefore be responsible for the lion’s share of climate action.
Looking forward, however, the vast majority of projected emissions this century do not come from Europe or the U.S., but from China and the rest of the world. This is for two main reasons:
Europe and the U.S. are already investing in the energy transition and are enacting credible policies. Many polluting sectors are regulated and there are plans for decarbonisation (although still insufficient).
Many Global South countries are seeing incredible economic growth rates, which means that their energy demand is going up fast. For this reason, they’re building more energy infrastructure. (This, of course, is good news, because it creates improvements in quality of life.)
Together, Europe and the U.S. together account for just 19% of projected emissions in the 21st century:
If we’re concerned with the greatest possible reduction of cumulative emissions globally, ensuring that countries build green instead of fossil infrastructure becomes a priority. Every coal plant built means committing to carbon emissions (and air pollution) for decades, and every coal plant avoided means less climate damage by the end of the century. This means that climate action in emerging economies might be an important but neglected cause.
At the same time, it would be unfair to place the costs of climate change mitigation on low-income countries, since they hardly contributed to the problem. Even worse, making low-income countries forego their (energy) development isn’t good for humans, and what’s even the point of climate action then?
Yet, there are many ways in which we can avoid a carbon lock-in in emerging economies, without harming or even while improving human development. For example, funding and subsidizing cleantech solutions in low and middle income countries makes it more attractive to deploy renewables instead of fossil fuels to meet increasing energy demand. Likewise, driving technological innovation that makes clean energy technologies cheaper than fossil fuels eliminates any trade-offs between cheap energy development and climate action.
🇨🇳 Did China pass peak carbon?
CO₂ emissions from China fell by 3% in March this year due to a rapid deployment of solar and wind, reduced steel and cement production, and an increase in the use of electric vehicles. This is the first decline in emissions since its Covid restrictions were lifted in 2022, and this trend might continue depending on the clean energy growth rate and government ambition.
Reduced Chinese emissions are huge news for climate: China is currently the country with the highest greenhouse gas emissions per year (in absolute numbers). The faster China passes “peak carbon”, the lower its cumulative emissions will be.
🇳🇱 Join us at EAGx Utrecht in July!
Join Effective Environmentalism and hundreds of other people fighting global challenges as effectively as possible at the EA Global X conference in Utrecht, 5-7 July.
The programme will feature inspirational talks, informative lectures, networking opportunities, and workshops on how to make the biggest positive impact! Some environment-related programme items are:
The Effective Environmentalism meetup! We’re looking forward to meeting our subscribers in person.
A talk by Magnolia Tovar, a chemical engineer with more than 22 years of experience in the energy sector, on driving clean technologies innovation to reach net-zero emissions.
A talk by Willem Sleegers, behavioural scientist at Rethink Priorities, on the well-being of wild animals.
Apply by Sunday, 23 June using the link below!
💶 We’re looking for funding to grow
Effective Environmentalism is currently a volunteer-run initiative, but we would like to scale up our activities to more effectively grow a global community of people and organisations tackling environmental issues as effectively as possible. Financial support would help us to devote more time to growing the field of effective environmentalism.
If you are a donor or work for a grant-making organisation, please get in touch!
📑 Triptych of articles on effective climate philanthropy
Sebastian Schienle from the German effective giving organisation Effektiv Spenden has written three blog posts on effectively stopping climate change through philanthropy. If you want to learn more about how to find effective climate action opportunities (which, if you’re reading this newsletter, are probably interested in), follow the links below!
🔔 Short news
Giving Green’s impact-focused climate regranting fund receives a $10 million anonymous donation, which will now also be allocated towards seeding new charities, young and promising organisations, and specific projects, in addition to their top charities.
The Bezos Earth Fund launches a $100 million AI for Climate and Nature Grand Challenge
Florida and Alabama are banning the production and sale of cultivated meat
📰 What we’ve been reading and listening to
Could low-carbon cement and steel be cheaper than we think? Green cement and steel costs 25% to 75% extra. But this increases the cost of final products – like a house or car – by just 1%. (Hannah Ritchie)
Some interesting charts on the "Cleantech Revolution”. Most of the world’s energy is wasted, and there’s lots of room for efficiency gains through electrification. (Also Hannah Ritchie)
What are the trade-offs between animal welfare and the environmental impact of meat? Eating meat with a lower carbon footprint often means killing more animals and treating them more poorly. (Even more Hannah Ritchie, via Our World in Data)
What are the implications of the new composition of the European Parliament on environmental action? (Alexander Reitzenstein)
This is not a far-right landslide, but a basis for further development of the last Parliament’s and Commission’s work in most policy areas. EPP, S&D and Renew’s working majority is smaller, but still relatively solid, and it could be backed up by the Greens.
How farmers in India can be incentivised to save water: payments for voluntary water conservation work.
(in Dutch) Klimaatbeleid dat rekening houdt met weglekeffecten (IPE)
👩💼 Job openings
We are highlighting some outstanding opportunities to make a positive difference with your careers. Even if you’re not applying yourself, you can make an impact by forwarding the job description to someone who you think would be a good fit for the job!
🌐 International/remote
Applied/Senior Researcher, Climate at Founders Pledge
Research Communicator at Founders Pledge
Scientist, Global Methane at Environmental Defense Fund
Climate Fellow (carbon removal demand) at Stripe (Closing 15 July)
Executive Director (protein transition) at Madre Brava (Closing 26 June)
🇺🇸 United States
Director of Partnerships at Breakthrough Energy (SF Bay Area)
Senior Program Associate, Ocean & Climate at Aspen Institute (Washington, D.C.)
Climate Change and Animal Agriculture Litigation Fellow at Yale Law School (New Haven, CT)
Vice President of Impact at The Good Food Institute (Remote, closing 9 July)
CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Chicago, IL)
Senior Associate, Power at Rockefeller Foundation (New York, NY)
Program Officer, Sustainable Protein at Bezos Earth Fund (Washington, D.C.)
🇪🇺 Europe
Cleantech Analyst at Future Cleantech Architects (Remscheid, Germany. Closing 20 July).
Senior Data Engineer at Carbon Re (London, UK)
Analyst, Surface Transport at UK Government Climate Change Committee (London, UK. Closing 28 June)
Grants Officer Belgium at European Climate Foundation (Brussels, Belgium)
Research Program Manager at Don Efficace (Paris, France)
You can find more impactful environmental job openings at 80,000 Hours, or find careers specific to developing alternative proteins here. The positions above are vetted by Effective Environmentalism and 80,000 Hours and are not sponsored. If you’re hiring, let us know for the next edition of the newsletter! We’re especially interested in job openings outside the U.S. and Europe.
It's obvious now you say it, but I've never thought about the distinction between reducing emissions and preventing lock in