The case for working on solutions that don't work (yet)
Solar and wind are growing rapidly, but also have their limits. We need to develop and scale up other clean energy technologies.
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The case for working on solutions that don’t work (yet)
The bottom line: solar and wind are growing incredibly fast. But to end all emissions, we’ll need to develop and grow other energy technologies, too. Instead of focusing on solutions that work, we should put more resources into making solutions work.
The incredible growth of renewables
Renewables have seen an extraordinary growth worldwide. For example, the production of solar energy has doubled every three years between 2016 and 2022. In fact, the growth of solar energy is going so fast that the International Energy Agency (IEA) keeps having to raise its solar growth forecast by a lot each year. Despite the updates, the IEA has an ‘excellent’ track record of substantially underestimating the growth of solar energy. None of the predictions that the agency made in the last two decades were even close to the actual growth of solar. The success factor? The cost has kept falling and policies have started to support renewables.
That’s great news. It means that emissions will likely be less high than once expected. The chance of a 4 °C or even 5 °C warming by the end of the century has become very unlikely. A more realistic forecast is 2.7 °C warming. This is still way too high, but we can make that much lower if we take effective action.
Why we can’t - and shouldn’t - bet on solar and wind to fix the climate problem
Solar and wind can certainly get us very far. They’re one of the plenty available, scalable, and financially viable solutions that we can - and should - scale up now.
But can solar and wind fully power the global energy supply? In the end, we need to get to zero emissions, so we need to be prepared for when solar and wind can’t outcompete fossil fuels.1 For example, it will be difficult to use solar and wind in industry and transport, build sufficient transmission infrastructure or create enough energy storage capacity. This latter problem is also called the ‘intermittency problem’. We can overcome the intermittency problem in five main ways, according to think-tank Future Cleantech Architects:
🔌 Expanding the transmission network. With a wider area covered, there’s a bigger chance that it will be windy or sunny somewhere.
📈 Building extra capacity. Build so much generation capacity that we still have enough when there’s little wind or sun.
🚦 Managing demand. Getting people and companies to use less electricity when there’s little sun and wind.
🔋 Storing energy. Generate energy when there’s sun and wind, and use it later. For example, by building batteries, thermal energy storage, or pumping water or air.
⚡ Installing dispatchable clean power. The most simple way to deal with intermittent energy is to have a clean power source available whenever you need it. For example, hot rock geothermal energy or next-generation nuclear power.
Why it makes sense to focus more on solutions that don’t work yet.
Further growing solar and wind is meaningful work. They can scale up further, and they’re tractable solutions that are proven to work. However, it is not a very neglected field. With costs declining so rapidly, one person’s extra donations, or one extra person dedicating their career to this area, likely won’t put a large dent in emissions. (Unless, of course, your position or background uniquely enables you to make a big difference here.)
Compare that to improving energy storage or getting new clean energy sources to work. Some of these solutions will be a bit less scalable, or they might be harder to work on, but they’re so neglected that even one person can make a considerable difference!
💴 Donate to effective charities working on neglected solutions. The charitable funds by Giving Green and Founders Pledge tackle the intermittency problem, among other high-impact climate work. For example, Giving Green’s fund finances Project Innerspace, a nonprofit unlocking new geothermal resources in population centres in the Global South.
👷♀️ Work on solving the intermittency problem yourself. Check out the career advice by High Impact Engineers. Even if you’re not an engineer yourself, this guide will help you find solutions to work on with different skills or high-impact organisations that may be hiring.
Organisational updates from Effective Environmentalism
Join the new Effective Environmentalism LinkedIn group! Share links, ask questions, and find collaborators on your projects. It’s a great way to stay up-to-date with the effective environmentalism community.
New learning resources. Our website has been updated with a list of resources to learn more about effective environmentalism. Check out the recommended books, articles, websites, podcasts, and YouTube videos. Be sure to check out the new Effective Environmentalism Spotify podcast playlist.
EAGx Berlin. Our co-directors Ruben and Soem attended the EAGx Berlin conference this weekend to present our field-building work and connect to changemakers in climate change, environment, and other causes. Our workshop (slides available here) saw 60+ attendees and we enjoyed going in more depth during our office hours and one-on-one conversations. There was also a great atmosphere at the climate change mitigation meetup and the talk on sustainable cement by Future Cleantech Architects.
Team updates. Ruben is working with the Dutch National Think Tank on circularity and the built environment, and Soem will be joining the Research Program at Ambitious Impact as a fellow. Both commitments end in December 2024, so until then we’ll be working on Effective Environmentalism part-time.
Call for funding. From early 2025 onwards, we aim to start field-building full-time and we’re looking for funding (~€ 8,500 EUR/month) to make that happen. If you’re a donor or grantmaker, please get in touch. We will use the funding for expanding available learning resources, increasing engagement with the environmental movement, developing a career guide, and establishing online and local communities.
🔔 Short news
Meet the EU’s new ‘pragmatic’ energy and climate leadership (Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Euractiv). The new team of commissioners-designate with climate responsibilities are a mix of left and right. No major change in policymaking is expected, but the left’s more socially-oriented ambition in the energy transition may be dampened. The next mandate will also include a Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness: Glenn Micallef from Malta.
Dutch effective giving organisation Doneer Effectief has awarded € 162,000 EUR to Opportunity Green. This organisation uses litigation and policy as an instrument for climate solutions, amplifies the voice of climate vulnerable countries, and lead an alliance for decarbonisation in aviation and maritime shipping.
The inaugural cohort of the Moral Ambition fellowship have started their work to advance the protein transition and fight the tobacco industry.
📚 What we’ve been reading
ReFuelEU Aviation's Targets: A Feasibility Assessment. Future Cleantech Architects (FCA) has published a report on the feasibility of upscaling sustainable aviation fuel. Key considerations include the availability of feedstocks for biofuels, production potential for bio- and synthetic fuels, and the electricity need to produce jet fuels.
The social costs of keystone species collapse: Evidence from the decline of vultures in India (Frank and Sudarshan, AER). The near-extinction of vultures in India increased mortality by more than 4%. After the patent on diclofenac - a common painkiller - expired in India, it started being used in animals. Vultures consuming the carcasses of these animals died, which led to more feral dogs, more rabies, and unsafe sanitation. (Upcoming publication in AER, preprint available on SSRN)
Positive trends on alternative proteins (Lewis Bollard). Better products, better merchandising, and more research can give us hope for the upcoming decennia.
Trends in climate philanthropy: Exploring the funding landscape in India (India Climate Collaborative). A first-of-its-kind assessment of climate giving in India, based on a data from 65 funders.
African development in an era of climate change (Ken Opalo). Poverty is not a viable climate strategy; access to energy is a critical component of economic development. African leaders should play geopolitical hardball to access funds and technologies for the climate transition.
Diversity is the spice of life (Jonathan Tonkin). How biodiversity increases resilience and ecosystem services.
Christians for Impact has published a report for Christians considering working on tackling climate change effectively as part of their Christian calling.
How much energy does desalinisation use? (Hannah Ritchie)
Also check out this video on a new desalinisation technology (Just Have a Think, YouTube)
No basis for claim that 80% of biodiversity is found in Indigenous territories (Fernández-Llamazares et al., Nature). Biodiversity can’t be divided into countable units, and cannot be mapped globally. Rather, the authors argue that the conservation community should acknowledge the crucial roles of Indigenous Peoples in stewardship comprehensibly.
Cut Norwegian electric car subsidies - and spend the money abroad (Mofoss and Sterri, Langsikt). Many Norwegians would buy electric cars even without a subsidy, the subsidy is expensive, and it makes cycling and public transport less effective. International climate action is way more cost-effective. (Automatic translation from the Norwegian version.)
Several posts on the Effective Altruism forum:
Green basic income and health taxes as a way for systemic change (Ulf Johansson)
Comparing cost-effectiveness of investment in public transport in London vs out of London for reducing carbon emissions (Pratyusha Singh, high school student)
Seeking High-Impact Project Ideas for a Consultancy Firm (Arie Pille)
👩💼 Job openings
We are highlighting some outstanding opportunities to make a positive difference with your careers. These positions are vetted by Effective Environmentalism and 80,000 Hours and are not sponsored.
United States
Two roles at Project Drawdown:
Europe
Several positions at the Good Food Institute Europe in philanthropy and policy
Consultant - Germany Affairs at the Clean Air Task Force
You can find more impactful environmental job openings at 80,000 Hours, or find careers specific to developing alternative proteins here.
We are grateful to our readers Magnolia Tovar and Joran Buwalda for suggesting content. Use this form to suggest content for the next newsletter. We love to read your ideas!